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- Volatility Went Crazy...Who Cares!
Volatility Went Crazy...Who Cares!
1 Buy, 2 Reductions, and 1 Increase
The VIX Volatility Index spiked to 65 on August 5th, the biggest spike since the 2020 Pandemic. Investors were wondering…”Should I do something? Panic sell? Buy more?”
I opted to do nothing that week. Daily market changes are not important for Income Investors.
News
SVOL Performed Like a Champ
The natural enemy of an Inverse VIX fund like SVOL is a VIX spike. In simple terms, it loses money when the VIX shoots up. Fortunately, that doesn’t happen often!
Unlike other inverse VIX ETFs, SVOL has a number of risk mitigation strategies that 1/ Reduce the downside during a VIX spike and 2/ Cost money, so they reduce the returns…but I think it’s worth the cost.
Bottom line is that SVOL bounced back. If you’d like to learn about the risk mitigation strategies that protected SVOL (and the bloodbath experienced by its competitors), this video breaks it down.
Record High Income for SPYI
While volatility spikes are generally bad for an inverse VIX fund like SVOL, for a covered call index fund like SPYI, it’s a mixed bag.
SPYI’s price fell in lock step with the S&P 500. The questions to be answered were…1/ Would it recovery quickly? and 2/ Would the higher volatility lead to higher income?
Recovery…check!
Higher income…check!
SPYI generates income by selling covered calls on the S&P 500. The premium it receives when selling those call options increases when volatility increases. The result was that the August distribution was higher than usual.
Does this mean SPYI is without risk? No. SPYI sells calls approx 6 to 7 weeks out. If the S&P 500 falls and recovers within that period, it’s easier for SPYI to recover. Longer term market corrections will have a greater negative impact.
Trades
RQI: Sold (Exited 2.85% Allocation)
This closed end fund appreciated 22% (not including distributions; total return is higher) since purchasing it in April 2024. RQI’s price appreciation caused its yield to fall down to 7.21%. I have nothing against the fund, and real estate is positioned to benefit from interest rate cuts. I’m optimizing for income, not appreciation…but I’m happy to take appreciation and spend it on higher income opportunities elsewhere.
AGNCN: Reduced from 4.20% to 2.94%
This preferred stock offers a high yield (more than 10%) because its payout is calculated on a variable rate. If, and when rates fall, so will the distributions from this preferred stock. Also, it is “Callable”, meaning that the issuer can buy it back at $25. Given that it's trading at a price slightly above $25, there’s a risk of losing the difference between the market price and $25 (an $0.83 loss as I type this). The lower that rates fall, the greater the motivation for the issuer to call this preferred share, and issue new preferred shares at a lower rate.
The risks described above are small eg. A call resulting in a loss of $0.83 on the current price of $25.83 is a 3.2% loss. A rate cut of 0.25% that reduces the distribution by approx 0.25% isn’t a big deal either. However, the lower that rates fall, the less attractive these preferred shares become. Lastly, all other things being equal, I prefer funds to individual stocks to avoid concentration risk.
If you’d like to review the details of the call date, interest rate calculation etc, they’re available at this link via Quantum Online (also repeated below under “Resources”).
NLY.PF: Reduced from 3.92 to 2.91%
Another preferred stock. Same scenario as explained above for AGNCN, and the numbers are similar. Also, if you want to check the details for this preferred stock, use the ticker NLY-F on the Quantum Online website.
UTG Increased from 2.93% to 5.01%
This closed end fund is focused on utilities and uses approx 19% leverage. Generally, utilities are capital intensive and carry a lot of debt. Therefore they are more profitable in a low interest rate environment. Also, the fund’s leverage will be cheaper if rates fall.
My expectation is that if rates fall, the price of UTG will increase, which will cause the yield to revert back to a lower rate, approaching 6%. If that happens, I’ll sell and take profits. If it doesn’t happen, I’ll happily continue to collect the current yield of 7.69%. The current yield is at the lower end of the range I’m looking for but that’s balanced out by this fund’s low risk (relative to the rest of the portfolio).
This fund has a 20 year history of zero dividend cuts, as explained in this recent video. I consider this allocation increase to be a slight de-risking of the portfolio.
UTG’s 20 year history of distributions without a single cut.
UTG’s current yield of 7.69% is higher than its historical average.
RLTY: Bought (2.99% Allocation)
Despite selling RQI, I want to retain some exposure to real estate…enter RLTY. This closed end fund is a close cousin of RQI. They share the same fund management company, Cohen and Steers, 3 fund managers are common to both funds, and the largest holdings are similar.
Why the switch?
1/ Higher yield. RQI is currently yielding 7.21% and RLTY is yielding 8.38%.
2/ Bigger discount to Net Asset Value (NAV). RQI is trading at a discount to NAV of -5.34%, while RLTY is trading at a discount to NAV of -9.28%. In other words it's “cheaper”. Or to put it another way, if RLTY were to generate the same level of investment income as RQI, the greater discount would result in a higher payout to investors.
Downsides?
There’s no free lunch. RLTY is slightly more risky than RQI because:
1/ RLTY has slightly higher leverage: RQI’s leverage is 27.86% and RLTY’s leverage is 32.92%.
2/ RLTY has a much shorter track record. RQI has been around since 2002. RLTY was born in February 2022.
Recent Videos
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Resources
Dividend Tracker: Snowball
Primary Research Tool: Seeking Alpha
How I Use Seeking Alpha to Find Income Stocks/Funds: Tutorial
Closed End Fund Database: CEF Connect
How to Buy Preferred Shares: 67 Page Guide to Preferred Shares
BDC Weekly Insights Report: Raymond James
(NEW!) Preferred Stock Profiles (Rates, Call Dates, etc): Quantum
Thanks for stopping by…see you in the next issue!
Regards,
Armchair Income
Disclaimer: I’m sharing information about my investments, but I’m not making any recommendations to you to buy or sell anything. Each investor has their own goals, risk tolerance, and timeline, and must make their own investments decisions…then take responsibility for those decisions. I’m not a financial advisor, and I don’t advise anybody regarding their investments. If the information in this newsletter is useful or helpful in any way, then my goal is achieved :) Some of the links provided above may be associated with affiliate programs. If so, use of those links will not incur any additional cost to the user (and will, in many cases, provide a benefit to the user) and may result in a referral commission to this newsletter.